Seasonal forecasts could give northern India months of warning before future severe winter air pollution
Princeton School of Public and International AffairsPeer-Reviewed Publication
Northern India experiences some of the world’s worst winter air pollution, with dangerous episodes often prompting emergency control efforts. In major cities like Delhi, the Air Quality Index has reached levels above 999 – over 30 times the World Health Organization’s safety limit. A new study finds that much of the year-to-year variation in winter pollution can be traced to large-scale weather systems – and that these relationships could provide useful warning of an unusually polluted winter, months in advance.
The study, published in Science Advances, finds that 70% of the year-to-year variation in winter air pollution across northern India can be explained by the frequency of western disturbances – storm systems that travel eastward from the Mediterranean region toward South Asia by strengthening vertical ventilation and bringing precipitation that helps clear accumulated pollution from the air. Winters with more frequent western disturbances therefore tend to experience lower air pollution levels, while winters with fewer of these storms are more susceptible to persistent severe pollution.
- Journal
- Science Advances
- Funder
- National Natural Science Foundation of China, M.S. Chadha Center for Global India at Princeton University, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment, U.K. Natural Environment Research Council