Why does global numerical weather prediction model fail to accurately forecast 21.7 Zhengzhou extreme precipitation?
Peer-Reviewed Publication
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 11-Apr-2026 11:15 ET (11-Apr-2026 15:15 GMT/UTC)
Recently, the team led by Professor Xin Xu from the School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University published a short communication in Science Bulletin entitled “Complex Terrain Causes Global Model Prediction Biases of 21.7 Zhengzhou Extreme Precipitation”. The study reveals that the orographic gravity wave drag triggered by complex terrain can cause significant location and intensity biases of the “21.7” Zhengzhou extreme precipitation in global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.
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