Predicting typhoon intensity using ocean surface temperatures
Kyoto UniversityPeer-Reviewed Publication
Kyoto, Japan -- Every year in the West Pacific, as summer ends and September rolls around, typhoons are not far behind. Typhoons are the most impactful extreme weather events affecting Japan and East Asia, and due to climate change, extremely strong typhoons are becoming more frequent. In order to adapt critical infrastructure to these massive storms and protect coastal areas, accurate accounting for their future impact is essential.
Assessing the disaster risks of a typhoon season involves quantitatively predicting storm intensity and frequency, relying heavily on the characteristics of regional meteorological fields and natural variability inherent in the climate system. Though varying typhoon characteristics are related to sea surface temperatures -- SST -- probabilistic evaluations that account for SST have been insufficient.
This motivated a team of researchers at KyotoU's Disaster Prevention Research Institute to analyze typhoon intensity through spatial SST patterns. They combined a slab-ocean model with the Global Atmospheric Climate Model developed by the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency, resulting in a unique simulation that successfully represents atmosphere-ocean interactions on a global scale.
- Journal
- Journal of Climate
- Funder
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science