A recent study published in National Science Review revealed detailed crustal structures of the Eastern Himalayas, showing a local stress field of dominantly north-south horizontal compression, low-angle subduction of the crust-mantle boundary and flat-ramp geometry of the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate. These results have important implications for understanding the regional tectonics, the broad uplift of the mountains and  generation of thrust and strike-slip earthquakes in this continental collision zone.

 Researchers from BI Norwegian Business School and NHH Norwegian School of Economics have developed a new behavioral credit-risk model that integrates credit and debit transactions. The model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art machine learning methods in predicting credit card delinquency and offers clearer insight into the behavioral drivers behind repayment problems.

A research team from Tsinghua University and Tongji University has proposed a “100-Kilometer Coastal Desalination for Short-cut Water Cycle (100K-CDS)” strategy to address China’s growing water scarcity. The authors reposition seawater desalination as a transformative solution, highlighting how the integration of reverse osmosis and renewable energy has cut costs and enabled a 57.5~98.3% reduction in carbon emissions. By industrializing water production along the coast—home to 40% of China's population and over half its GDP—this approach treats freshwater as a manufacturable resource, decoupling water security from natural constraints and offering a scalable model for arid regions worldwide.

Researchers at Peking University share the results of their 30-year investigation in tackling the long-standing mystery of turbulence initiation. Their study identifies soliton-like coherent structures as the key mechanism in driving the transition from laminar to turbulence in shear flows. This discovery provides promising directions for the development of advanced predictive models and technologies for improved control of turbulence.

Abstract

Purpose – This study aims to explore the impacts of U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets and further reveal the specific influence mechanisms.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper introduces a debt ceiling uncertainty index based on news reports and selects six representative crude oil futures and spot markets to investigate the heterogeneous impacts of U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets. More specifically, on the one hand, the nonparametric causality-inquantiles test method is used to discuss the asymmetric impacts of debt ceiling uncertainty on the different conditional distributions of crude oil series. On the other hand, the dynamic effects of debt ceiling uncertainty on crude oil markets are analyzed, combining with the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model.

Findings – The conclusions of this paper are as follows: First, the U.S. debt ceiling uncertainty has obvious nonlinear impacts on each crude oil market, and the effects are greater under the normal condition of crude oil markets rather than under their extreme conditions. Second, the shocks from debt ceiling uncertainty to crude oil markets are mainly illustrated as negative and can be significantly enhanced by important debt-related events. Over time, the reactions of crude oil markets turn to weak positive and gradually dissipate after 6 months. Finally, enterprise production, investor sentiment and government shutdown play important roles as transmission intermediaries for the influence of debt ceiling uncertainty on the crude oil market.

Originality/value – The findings are beneficial for investors to accurately judge oil price trends and prevent investment losses caused by debt risks and also help producers prevent the impacts of crude oil price changes on production and operation activities. Moreover, it is conducive to the management department to maintain the stability of the crude oil market, thus enabling the crude oil financial market to better serve the real economy.