Scots pine plantations face different climate limits across Eurasia

Afforestation is widely used to restore ecosystems and sequester carbon, but the trees planted today will face increasingly frequent heat and drought. A new study published in Forest Ecosystems finds that Scots pine plantations respond very differently to climate stress depending on their geographical locations, pointing to the need for region-specific management.

Researchers compared Scots pine across three Eurasian countries representing contrasting climates: drought-prone Mediterranean Spain, temperate-continental Romania and the cold continental monsoon climate of Northeast China. They examined how plantations responded to three major drought events in each region, and climate observations were combined with a growth model to identify the conditions most likely to limit growth.

The Spanish plantations experienced the largest growth reductions during severe drought and showed the lowest resistance, meaning their growth fell most sharply while drought was occurring. On average, they also rebounded more strongly afterward than plantations in Romania and Northeast China, although more than one-third of the Spanish plantations had still not returned to their pre-drought growth level after four years.

Growth in Romania and Northeast China was generally more stable during the selected droughts, and most plantations recovered within four years. Nevertheless, their resilience declined across more recent drought events, indicating that plantations in relatively humid or cooler climates are not necessarily protected from drought stress.

The analysis also revealed different underlying constraints. Soil moisture was the dominant limitation on Scots pine growth in dry Spain, especially during the growing season. Temperature played a larger role in Romania and Northeast China. In Spain, warmer springs may extend or advance growth, but hotter summers can intensify water stress and reduce wood formation.

Overall, the findings suggest that management of Scots pine plantations should reflect the climatic constraints in each region. Conserving soil moisture and strengthening drought resilience may be particularly important in Mediterranean areas, while temperature-related stress deserves greater attention in temperate and monsoon climates. Further research should refine growth models by incorporating interactions among climate variables, long-term drought effects, regional climate dynamics and local adaptation. This could improve predictions and support more effective strategies for sustaining Scots pine plantations as the climate continues to warm.

DOI Link:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fecs.2026.100495