Space launch costs have fallen 96% in 65 years; could plummet in the future

In 1960, sending a single kilogram into orbit cost $87,000. Today the average cost is on average under $4,000. By 2040, it could cost as little as $300 per kilogram, according to a study.

Alessio Terzi and Francesco Nicoli present a comprehensive dataset of rocket launch costs: more than 4,400 launches spanning all major spacefaring nations. By standardizing costs across six decades of launches and calculating the cost per kilogram to orbit for each mission, the authors trace a pattern of technological learning that rivals the fastest cost declines ever recorded in any industry. For every doubling of cumulative payload sent to orbit, the average cost of a kilogram has fallen by 21.2%—a learning rate comparable to solar panels in their early adoption phase. If that relationship holds, average launch costs will reach $1,600 per kilogram by 2030 and $300 by 2040.

In the near term, SpaceX's Starship could push costs below $1,000 per kilogram, but whether the vehicle  can deliver those cost reductions will depend on how quickly launch cadence can be scaled up.

According to the authors, three forces could slow or reverse the space launch cost trajectory: the worsening problem of space debris, which raises costs and risks for all operators; geopolitical fragmentation of launch markets, as nations pursue independent access to orbit; and the growing concentration of Western commercial launch capacity in a single provider. 

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