CORNELL UNIVERSITY MEDIA RELATIONS OFFICE
FOR RELEASE: June 30, 2026
Kaitlyn Serrao
607-882-1140
Broccoli's eastward shift may preview produce's future
ITHACA, N.Y. - The burgeoning East Coast broccoli industry is helping slightly lower costs and reduce reliance on the drought-prone West. Those were findings from a new Cornell University supply chain model study that showed expanding production outside of California – the country’s top broccoli producer – can help stabilize fresh produce supply chains that are vulnerable to water shortages.
At the same time, the study reveals, the East Coast broccoli industry must coordinate growing seasons, from south to north as the year progresses, to ensure a steady supply.
The paper, which published in the journal Agribusiness, used evidence from the growing U.S. broccoli market to analyze how fresh produce supply chains might be successfully reconfigured to alleviate disruptions from West Coast drought.
The model identified optimal locations for expanding the broccoli industry in 10 Eastern states and quantified how such expansion affects supply chain costs, market share and food miles.
“We do think our model can be generalized to other crops, which face similar issues and increasing challenges from drought and water scarcity when production is concentrated in one state,” said Bingyan Dai, the paper’s first author and a doctoral student in the lab of co-author Miguel Gómez, Professor of Food Marketing.
Demand for fresh fruits and vegetables, and especially broccoli, most of which is grown in California, has been growing nationally while water scarcity in the West has also increased, Dai said.
“We wanted to show that the industry could still be competitive and shift production from California to different parts of the U.S., including the East Coast, in response to droughts because droughts affect shipments,” Gómez said.
Dai’s supply chain model accounted for times when West Coast drought is serious or moderate. In each circumstance, the model sought to minimize cost for the entire industry, with the East Coast market in mind.
The East Coast broccoli industry includes 10 states from Maine to Florida, each with its own growing season. The model revealed optimal growing locations based on the time of year. For example, broccoli is only produced in the winter in Florida and Georgia; by February, growing moves north to South Carolina, and then up the coast as the year progresses, ending with Maine and its short growing period and late-summer harvest.
“The beauty of broccoli in the East Coast is you can have a system so the region is able to supply product year-round,” Gómez said.
The model also revealed that under severe drought, reallocating production from California to the East Coast reduces annual supply-chain costs by 1.5% and lowers transport distances in the Eastern market by around 20%, according to the paper.
The study was funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For additional information, read this Cornell Chronicle story.
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Journal
Agribusiness