On-demand weather observations to strengthen climate resilience in the Arctic

Arctic communities are increasingly exposed to dangerous weather events due to climate change and rely on accurate weather forecasts. However, conditions in the lower atmosphere remain poorly observed in the Arctic because monitoring systems are expensive and difficult to deploy. Now, researchers propose a new framework for on-demand atmospheric observations based on lightweight, low-cost profiling systems that can be operated by local communities whenever additional weather data are needed, helping improve forecasting and climate resilience.

As climate change rapidly transforms the polar environment, people in the Arctic are facing a growing number of threats. Many indigenous and local communities living across Alaska, Canada, Russia, and Nordic countries have to regularly make life-or-death decisions based on weather forecasts. Knowing how conditions may change in the next few hours directly influences their travel, hunting, and fishing plans; accurate local weather information is tightly tied to their safety and livelihoods.

Unfortunately, the forecasting tools currently available to these communities are poorly suited to the task. The world’s most advanced weather prediction systems are better at forecasting conditions at large, regional scales rather than at local scales in the short term, which is where people actually make decisions. Moreover, across much of the Arctic, the lower atmosphere remains poorly observed. Satellites have difficulty measuring this layer accurately in polar regions, while weather balloons and drone-based observation systems are expensive, technically demanding to launch, and difficult to operate in remote communities. As a result, the places that most urgently need better local forecasts are often the ones with the weakest observational coverage.

To address this challenge, Professor Jun Inoue from the Arctic Environment Research Center, National Institute of Polar Research, Japan, and Dr. Hajo Eicken from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany, have proposed a new framework for on-demand atmospheric observations. Their latest paper, published in npj Climate Action on May 09, 2026, outlines how lightweight, low-cost atmospheric profiling systems could enable local communities, researchers, and institutions to perform weather observations whenever and wherever they are needed, helping improve short-term forecasting and climate resilience in rapidly changing regions.

The study builds on past research showing that even a small number of additional atmospheric observations in the Arctic can significantly improve weather forecasts. Previous field campaigns using radiosondes, which are instrument packages attached to weather balloons, demonstrated that observations collected in data-sparse polar regions could improve predictions of Arctic cyclones, cold-air outbreaks, and other extreme events. However, conventional radiosonde systems require trained personnel and incur high operational costs, limiting their long-term use in many remote areas.

Rather than relying solely on such traditional weather observation techniques and infrastructure, the researchers advocate for community-operated systems that are easier to deploy. The proposed approach, enabled by advances in miniaturization and electronics, centers on ultralight balloon-based sensors that can measure key atmospheric variables such as temperature, humidity, pressure, and wind. These measurements could then be transmitted in real time and incorporated into weather prediction systems, including emerging artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted forecasting models.

An important aspect of the proposed framework is that observations could be conducted on demand, meaning that measurements would be launched in response to approaching storms, wildfire smoke events, coastal flooding risks, or other rapidly evolving hazards. This type of flexible observation strategy could help fill critical gaps in existing forecasting systems, particularly in remote or underserved regions. “Because the proposed system is lightweight, flexible, and comparatively low-cost, it could complement existing meteorological networks by enabling observations to be performed by local institutions, researchers, or communities whenever additional atmospheric data are needed,” explains Prof. Inoue.

Worth noting, the concept of on-demand atmospheric profiling has broader implications that extend beyond the Arctic. Similar observational gaps exist in many mountainous regions, island communities, coastal areas, and rural locations around the world. By combining on-demand observations with AI-assisted forecasting, communities could gain access to more localized and actionable weather information. By lowering the operational and technical barriers for atmospheric observations, the proposed approach could help create more accessible, distributed, and responsive observation networks that strengthen disaster preparedness, climate adaptation, and societal resilience.

“The upcoming Fifth International Polar Year (IPY-5), a scientific campaign planned for 2032–2033, could provide an important framework for advancing these systems in polar regions. If successful, this solution could contribute to a broader shift toward community-centered weather observations amidst a rapidly changing Arctic climate,” concludes Prof. Inoue.

About Professor Jun Inoue from National Institute of Polar Research, Japan

Dr. Jun Inoue is a Professor and Director at the Arctic Environment Research Center, National Institute of Polar Research, Japan. He obtained his master’s and PhD degrees from Hokkaido University, Japan, in 1999 and 2001, respectively. His research interests lie in the fields of atmospheric and hydrosphere science, particularly in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. He has published over 120 papers on these topics and has received awards from the Japan Meteorological Society on three occasions.

About National Institute of Polar Research, Japan

The National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) engages in comprehensive research via observation stations in Arctic and Antarctica as a member of the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS). It provides researchers throughout Japan and other countries with infrastructure and support for polar observations and works actively to promote polar science. By working under the same frameworks as various international academic organizations, NIPR is the core Japanese representative institution operating in both poles, conducting cutting-edge research on polar ecosystems, polar climate science, geology, sustainability in polar regions, and more.

About the Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS)

The Research Organization of Information and Systems (ROIS) is a parent organization of four national institutes (National Institute of Polar Research, National Institute of Informatics, the Institute of Statistical Mathematics and National Institute of Genetics) and the Joint Support-Center for Data Science Research. It is ROIS's mission to promote integrated, cutting-edge research that goes beyond the barriers of these institutions, in addition to facilitating their research activities, as members of inter-university research institutes.