The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access — they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.
JOURNAL ARTICLES
What follows are summaries that have not been peer-reviewed or vetted by the article authors; read the full article for peer-reviewed conclusions. Please note that no single study is ever definitive, and each must be taken in the context of the broader scientific literature.
Optimizing U.S. Heat Alerts: A Multi-Metric Analysis of Heat-Related Mortality
Weather, Climate, and Society
A quarter of heat deaths occur below warning thresholds. This study links data on heat-related mortality to weather conditions. Of 5,465 confirmed heat deaths in the contiguous United States between 1996 and 2024, one-quarter occurred when the Heat Index was less than 33°C (~91.5°F), well below most thresholds for heat warnings. Children, socially vulnerable groups, and people outdoors were at higher risk. Looking regionally, wet-bulb globe temperature and similar indices were more closely correlated with heat deaths than the standard broad-brushed Heat Index, except in the arid Southwest.
Integrated Multi-agency National Weather Service Operations During the 14 March 2025 Oklahoma Fire Disaster
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Two months before Texas floods, an NWS emergency success story. A violent firestorm that struck Oklahoma in March 2025 likely would have been much more devastating without a National Weather Service collaboration with Oklahoma Forestry Services (OFS) and the University of Oklahoma’s Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO). Embedding an NWS meteorologist with OFS during fire season led to improved planning for fire weather. When the firestorm was predicted, OFS and CIWRO personnel integrated with the NWS to coordinate on fire monitoring, warnings, and emergency management. Preliminary analysis suggests that early satellite-based fire detections helped to save more than $810 million in property damage.
A New Twilight Sky Color Prediction Model Based on Machine Learning Methods
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Predicting spectacular sunsets. Twilight, when the sun has set but its light remains, often plays host to visually appealing atmospheric phenomena. A team using machine learning models and observations from Shenzhen, China, has homed in on a new modeling method with a high success rate at predicting such “ornamental twilight” displays, especially the phenomenon of “flaming clouds” (dramatic pink and orange clouds against a clear sky), and elucidating the atmospheric conditions associated with them.
Using Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance to Improve Forecasts of Post-Landfall Tropical Cyclone Hazards
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Data from hurricane reconnaissance flights improve post-landfall forecasts. Data from research flights into tropical cyclones help forecast not only where the cyclone will make landfall but also storm impacts after landfall, such as catastrophic flooding. Using models and data from Hurricanes Harvey and Florence, the authors find that adding data from reconnaissance flights improves both post-landfall storm track forecasts and precipitation forecasts; they recommend maximizing such flights through storm landfall to further improve prediction.
Increasing Volatility of Extreme Daily Precipitation Across the Contiguous United States
Journal of Climate
U.S. rainfall has become more intensely variable. The volatility of daily rainfall (the strength of day-to-day fluctuations in rainfall, and how long those fluctuations persist) has increased in the contiguous United States since 1950, especially in the South, which has seen a 17.2% increase in average daily volatility. Extreme fluctuations between wet and dry days have become 20.8% more frequent, with particular instability in extreme precipitation events. These abrupt transitions elevate the risk of flash floods, infrastructure issues, and human impacts, reflecting a need for improved adaptation efforts.
Recent Trends of Utah’s Changing Wintertime Weather and Climate Characteristics
Journal of Climate
Utah snow and cold winters declining. Snowy Utah mountains support crucial natural ecosystems and a multibillion-dollar economy. Using multiple types of observations, this study charts 1–2°C of warming during Utah’s cold season over 1981–2024 and later starts to snow accumulation season. There has been a statewide reduction in cold-season precipitation (especially spring and fall), but increased days of intense precipitation. Especially at lower elevations, more precipitation is falling as rain.
Ground-Based Doppler Radar Observations of Wave-Like Coherent Structures along the Inner Edge of the Tropical Cyclone Eyewall
Monthly Weather Review
Newly described structures in a hurricane’s eye. Reconnaissance planes flying into hurricanes, and modelers studying hurricane dynamics, have sometimes noted wave-like fingers of cloud extending out from a storm’s inner eyewall into the eye. This study systematically describes these structures’ characteristics for the first time based on radar images, and suggests that they occur in a variety of tropical cyclones and may be a distinct class of tropical cyclone features.
Examining Variations in Public Information Seeking for Severe Weather Events on National Weather Service Social Media Posts
Weather, Climate, and Society
As weather hazards approach, social media users focus on location. Limited space in social media posts means National Weather Service weather alerts need careful design. A study on severe weather events between 2019 and 2021 showed that the most common social media questions to NWS were about the warning event’s location, especially as the event approached, underscoring the importance of clear and specific location cues.
Good Fire Weather
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
When is the right time to set fires? Dangerous fire weather has become a vital public safety issue, but little attention has been made to study, or even define, weather that is right for controlled burns. As a first step, the authors propose a definition of “good fire weather” — “the set of atmospheric conditions before, during, and following ignition allowing wildland fire to achieve beneficial outcomes while minimizing hazards from fire and smoke” — and suggest ways to support forecasting of good fire weather.
Evaluating the Performance of AI-based and Traditional NWP Guidance for High Impact Winter Storms over the U.S. East Coast
Weather and Forecasting
AI enhances predictability of winter storms. A study suggests that AI-based numerical weather prediction systems (AI-NWP) can outperform traditional NWP methods for predicting high-impact winter storms on the U.S. East Coast. AI-NWP outperformed by 20–30% for key prediction metrics like root-mean-square error (a measure of accuracy) in predicting precipitation, and could recognize key features of high-amplitude storms even 7–10 days in advance.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.
About the American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.
About AMS Journals
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.