Climate policies are cutting carbon – new study shows

Environmental Change Institute – University of Oxford Media Release

Countries with stricter and better-targeted climate policies cut carbon emissions faster, according to a major new study by researchers in the UK and EU.

The study draws on the most comprehensive climate policy dataset ever assembled, using over 3,900 policies adopted since 2000 in 43 leading economies responsible for well over three quarters of global emissions.

The findings show:

• Climate policy works: countries with more stringent climate policies decarbonise their economies faster.
• Targeting policies matters: policies aimed at the most polluting sectors — like energy, industry and transport — deliver the biggest impact.
• Climate targets strengthen policy impact: countries with long-term, legally anchored climate goals and dedicated ministries to help stay on course get more out of every policy they adopt.
• International cooperation helps: membership in bodies such as the International Energy Agency or Clean Energy Ministerial boosts policy effectiveness.

By comparing the world today with a scenario in which no climate policies existed, the authors find that more than 3 billion tonnes of CO₂ were avoided in 2022 alone — roughly equal to the EU’s annual emissions.

Prof Charlie Wilson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change and Senior Research Fellow at the ECI and co-lead author, said: “Climate policies are not just symbolic gestures; they are working. The countries that focus policies where emissions are highest are reaping the biggest benefits. This shows that careful design and strategic focus really matter.”

The study involved researchers from institutions across the UK, Germany, Austria and Norway.

Dr Theo Arvanitopoulos, Cardiff University and LSE, also co-lead author, added: “Long-term climate targets and dedicated ministries aren’t just paperwork; they boost the real-world impact of climate policies. Our robust analysis of large policy portfolios shows they strengthen what governments can achieve, despite growing political debate about their effectiveness.”

Dr Simon Bulian, Heidelberg University, the third co-lead author said: “Our study shows that economic instruments were most effective in reducing emission intensity, compared to regulatory or voluntary approaches. However, our findings also suggest a positive impact of policy traditions: countries that specialised in a particular type of instrument (economic or regulatory) were the most successful in reducing emission intensity. Economic instruments are not necessarily a one-size-fits-all solution.”

The study provides clear lessons for policymakers: the quantity and focus of policies both matter, and both supportive national organisations and international cooperation makes them more effective.

Prof Wilson added: “Our study is good news for climate policy efforts so far: it’s working. But emissions are still too high so it’s not working fast enough. The challenge now is to use what we’ve learnt to accelerate progress towards a stable climate.”

Read the full study in Nature Communications: Climate policy portfolios that accelerate emission reductions [ADD LINK]

The study was a collaboration between researchers at Cardiff University, University of Oxford, University of East Anglia, London School of Economics (UK), Heidelberg University (Germany), and IIASA, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria).

ENDS

Notes to editors:

Fact File

• Study covers climate policies in 43 OECD and BRIICS countries over the period 2000–2022.
• Dataset includes 3,917 climate policies, analysed by sector (energy, industry, transport, buildings, agriculture/waste) and by type of policy instrument (regulatory, market-based, voluntary).
• Countries with more stringent (tighter) policies in place reduce emissions intensity - emissions per unit of GDP - faster.
• Policies aimed at high-emitting sectors (typically energy or transport) have the greatest impact.
• Clearly-defined long-term climate targets significantly strengthen the effect of policies.
• Estimated >3 GtCO₂ avoided in 2022 due to climate policies already enacted.
• Data sources include the IEA Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy database and the IEA Policies and Measures Database.
• All non-proprietary data and replication code openly available in the heiDATA repository, ensuring transparency and enabling further research.

For media inquiries and interview requests, contact:

• Vicki Sperrey, Media Lead, Environmental Change Institute: vicki.sperrey@eci.ox.ac.uk  +44 7467 457164
• Prof Charlie Wilson, study co-lead, Environmental Change Institute: charlie.wilson@eci.ox.ac.uk +44 7583 614871  

About the Environmental Change Institute www.eci.ox.ac.uk

The Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford was established in 1991. Its aim is to organise and promote interdisciplinary research on the nature, causes and impact of environmental change and to contribute to the development of management strategies for coping with future environmental change.

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