A new University of Houston report finds that Houston ISD’s enrollment decline has accelerated since the state takeover more than two years ago, while experienced educators are leaving the district at higher rates.
In June 2023, the Texas Education Agency replaced HISD’s elected school board with a state-appointed board of managers and named a new superintendent, citing years of academic underperformance and violations of state open meetings and procurement laws. According to researchers at UH’s Institute for Education Policy Research and Evaluation, the intervention has coincided with significant shifts in both the district’s student population and teaching workforce.
Researchers analyzed data from UH’s Education Research Center — which includes records from the TEA and the State Board for Educator Certification — to examine changes before and after the takeover.
“The overarching takeaway is that the student and teacher populations in Houston ISD are very different than they were before the takeover,” said Toni Templeton, senior research scientist at the IEPRE. “We are continuing to investigate the degree to which long-term, lasting improvement can be attained with a declining student population and an increasingly inexperienced and uncertified teacher workforce.”
Enrollment Decline Accelerates
HISD’s enrollment was steadily declining prior to the takeover, but losses increased in both size and pace after the 2022-23 school year. As of 2024-25, the district is serving 13,208 fewer students than in 2022-23, with annual losses growing year over year.
"Notably, all of this is happening in a choice context that does not yet include additional competition from private schools following the passage of Senate Bill 2," said Blake Heller, report co-author and assistant professor at the Hobby School of Public Affairs.
Declines occurred across most grade levels and campus types, including campuses operating under the New Education System model and those that later opted into it. NES involves changes to staffing, curriculum, instructional materials and assessments.
Enrollment declines were driven by HISD students moving to neighboring school districts and charter schools, as well as students choosing to leave Texas public education entirely, where the share doubled from 4.4% of students in 2016-17 to 8.1% in 2024-25.
“Not only does research show that increased student mobility interrupts the educational trajectories of students, but student enrollment is the major driver of school funding in Texas, and enrollment declines result in fewer educational dollars for the district,” Templeton said.
The steepest drop occurred at the high school level, particularly in ninth grade, where enrollment fell 15.1% in two years.
"In economics, choices are informative: If parents choose HISD schools less, that suggests they perceive the quality to be going down, not up,” said Willa Friedman, report co-author and associate professor of economics.
The report also found broader student enrollment changes:
- Lower-autonomy NES campuses experienced the largest enrollment losses, while the highest autonomy campuses (Level 4), which include magnet and specialty programs, were the only group with enrollment growth both before and after the takeover.
- Enrollment declines were also significant in early grades, including kindergarten and first grade, indicating families are choosing not to enroll young children in HISD.
“The report clearly documents that enrollment declines in HISD have accelerated following the state takeover of the district,” Heller said. “The fact that the post-takeover enrollment declines are the largest in entry grades — early elementary and early high school lost the largest shares of students — suggests that when families are faced with an active decision, they are increasingly choosing to opt out of the district.”
Shifts in the Teaching Workforce
The report also documents substantial changes in HISD’s teaching workforce. Since the takeover, the number of first-year teachers increased by 64.7%, while teachers with two to five years of experience grew by 12.5%.
At the same time, the share of uncertified teachers rose sharply — from 0.3% in 2016-17 to 19.8% in 2024-25 — despite research linking certified, experienced teachers to positive student outcomes.
“Research shows that more experienced and certified teachers are those most influential on positive student outcomes,” Templeton said. “HISD’s decision to hire more inexperienced, uncertified teachers with the hopes of making lasting change is an untested experiment.”
Seasoned teachers have also left in large numbers. Educators with 16 or more years of experience dwindled substantially in the second year of the takeover. Teacher retention also dropped, with just 58.6% of teachers remaining on their campuses from the 2023-24 to 2024-25 school year, compared to retention rates above 70% prior to the takeover.
Broader Implications
Templeton said the findings may help inform other Texas districts facing state intervention. Education Commissioner Mike Morath announced planned takeovers in Beaumont, Connally and Lake Worth ISDs in December, joining an earlier takeover announcement for Fort Worth ISD.
“If districts take on a strategy similar to that of HISD, they might experience population shifts — both in declining student enrollment and a more inexperienced and uncertified teaching workforce,” Templeton said.
The report, “Houston ISD Takeover: By the Numbers,” is part of a broader UH IEPRE series examining the effects of the state takeover. Future reports will analyze impacts on student achievement and teacher performance.