New AI tool tracks early signs of hurricane formation

An artificial intelligence system developed by the University of Miami is giving forecasters the first automated way to distinguish between key tropical weather patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific—an advance now in use at the National Hurricane Center for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

MIAMI — A research team led by a Ph.D. student at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science has developed a new artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can automatically identify and track tropical easterly waves (TEWs)—clusters of clouds and wind that often develop into hurricanes—and separate them from two major tropical wind patterns: the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the monsoon trough (MT).

“With this wave tracking tool, we have a new way to detect different patterns, and the types of systems that can grow into hurricanes,” said Will Downs, a Ph.D. student in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the Rosenstiel School who led the development of the system. “It’s one important step toward improving forecasts and giving communities more time to prepare.”

The artificial intelligence (AI) model, created by Downs and his collaborators, addresses long-standing gaps in forecasting. Existing tools have struggled to track TEWs in regions like the Caribbean, and no automated method has existed to tell the ITCZ and MT apart—until now.

Using four decades of weather data from 1981 to 2023, Downs trained convolutional neural networks (CNNs)—a form of AI—to detect and differentiate these systems in real time. His model combines historical observations from the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch with reanalysis data of past weather and climate conditions.

Forecasters at the NHC now have real-time access to the wave tracker. 

“It has captured the waves where they seem to be going, with remarkable accuracy so far,” said Sharan Majumdar, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the Rosenstiel School and Downs’ advisor. “The robust dataset it produces will help researchers more effectively study the behavior of these waves—from weak clusters of clouds to developing tropical cyclones.”

The analysis also found that tropical waves in the Caribbean tend to be weaker than in the open Atlantic yet remain detectable with AI. It identified a westward expansion of the monsoon trough in the Atlantic over recent decades and shifts in the Pacific during strong El Niño events.

Downs’ fascination with storms began in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina, when his family evacuated to rural Louisiana. After Hurricane Isaac struck in 2012, he began tracking storms online, a passion that eventually led him to pursue a doctoral degree at the Rosenstiel School studying cyclogenesis—the process by which hurricanes form and intensify.

The project also benefited from collaboration with fellow atmospheric sciences Ph.D. student Aidan Mahoney, who interns at the NHC. “What started as a quick question about tropical wave analysis turned into many long discussions about the complexities of tropical wave dynamics,” Mahoney said. “Will developed an expert understanding of the training data, which allowed him to create the best possible version of the tracker.”

The study titled, Using Deep Learning to Identify Tropical Easterly Waves, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Monsoon Trough, was published August 8, 2025 in the Monthly Weather Review of the American Meteorological Society. 

The research was funded by a National Science Foundation grants AGS-1747781 and AGS-2438140, a University of Miami Provost’s Fellowship in Interdisciplinary Computing, and a University of Miami Fellowship.

About the University of Miami and Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science

The University of Miami is a private research university and academic health system with a distinct geographic capacity to connect institutions, individuals, and ideas across the hemisphere and around the world. The University’s vibrant academic community comprises 12 schools and colleges serving more than 19,000 undergraduate and graduate students in more than 180 majors and programs. Located within one of the most dynamic and multicultural cities in the world, the University is building new bridges across geographic, cultural, and intellectual borders, bringing a passion for scholarly excellence, a spirit of innovation, and a commitment to tackling the challenges facing our world. The University of Miami is a member of the prestigious Association of American Universities (AAU).

 Founded in 1943, the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science is one of the world’s premier research institutions in the continental United States. The School’s basic and applied research programs seek to improve understanding and prediction of Earth’s geological, oceanic, and atmospheric systems by focusing on four key pillars:

*Saving lives through better forecasting of extreme weather and seismic events. 

*Feeding the world by developing sustainable wild fisheries and aquaculture programs. 

*Unlocking ocean secrets through research on climate, weather, energy and medicine. 

*Preserving marine species, including endangered sharks and other fish, as well as protecting and restoring threatened coral reefs. www.earth.miami.edu.