Cost effectivities analysis of perovskite solar cells: Will it outperform crystalline silicon ones?

The commercialization of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) has garnered worldwide attention as the next generation of photovoltaic (PV) technology. With their high efficiency and potentially low manufacturing cost, PSCs are expected to revolutionize the renewable energy market. However, the current manufacturing cost of perovskite solar modules is calculated as 0.57 $ W^-1, much higher than that of silicon solar cells. Now, Professor Liyuan Han from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, along with researchers from Wuhan University of Technology and other institutions, present a comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis of PSCs, offering valuable insights into their potential to outperform crystalline silicon solar cells.

Why Cost Effectiveness Matters

• Current Cost Analysis : The manufacturing cost and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of PSCs are estimated as 0.57 $ W^-1 and 18–22 US cents (kWh) ^-1, respectively. Materials cost accounts for 70% of the total cost, while capital cost and other costs each account for nearly 15%.
• Potential for Cost Reduction : Sensitivity analysis indicates that improving efficiency, yield, and reducing materials cost can significantly lower the cost of PSC modules. Under conditions of 25% efficiency, 25-year lifetime, and cost reduction of materials and equipment, PSCs have the potential to outperform crystalline silicon solar cells.
• Long-Term Cost Targets : To achieve cost parity with crystalline silicon modules, it is essential to refine the fabrication processes, develop stable inorganic transport materials, and precisely control material formation and processing at the microscale and nanoscale to enhance charge transport.

Innovative Strategies for Cost Reduction

• Improving Efficiency and Yield : Enhancing the efficiency and yield of PSC modules is crucial for cost reduction. For example, improving the yield from 50% to 90% can significantly reduce the cost from 0.571 to 0.324 $ W^-1. However, even with high efficiency and yield, the cost of PSCs remains higher than that of crystalline silicon modules.
• Reducing Materials Cost : The cost of materials, especially FTO glass, ITO, and C60, accounts for a large proportion of the total cost. Developing new transparent conductive substrates with lower costs and using cheap inorganic electron transport materials, such as SnO₂ and TiO₂, are effective ways to reduce materials cost.
• Optimizing Equipment Investment : As manufacturing capacity expands, equipment investment per 100 MW can be reduced. However, the impact of equipment investment on cost reduction is relatively small, as capital cost only accounts for a small proportion of the total cost.

Future Outlook

• Short-Term Target (Scenario 1) : Achieving 20% efficiency and 90% yield within 4–5 years through the extension of current technologies is possible. However, the module cost (0.24 $ W^-1) is still higher than that of crystalline silicon modules, so new markets such as mobile electronic devices, toys, see-through devices, and indoor applications should be sought for profitability.
• Long-Term Target (Scenario 2) : PSCs can obtain a cost similar to that of crystalline silicon modules under the coordination of over 25% efficiency, 99.5% yield, 40% materials cost reduction, 50% equipment investment reduction, and 30% electricity cost reduction. Achieving a lifetime of 25 years is also essential for PSCs to have a competitive LCOE.
• Research Directions : To reduce the LCOE of PSCs, several research issues need to be addressed, such as improving production yield, enhancing module efficiency and stability, developing cheap electron transport layer (ETL) and transparent conductive oxide (TCO) materials, reducing vacuum processes, and optimizing the structure of modules.

Perovskite solar cells have shown great potential to outperform crystalline silicon solar cells in terms of cost-effectiveness. However, significant efforts are still needed to improve efficiency, yield, and stability, as well as to reduce materials and equipment costs. Stay tuned for more exciting breakthroughs in the commercialization of perovskite solar cells!