USTC unveils impact mechanism of climate change on urban fire risks

A research team led by Prof. SHI Long and Prof. ZHANG Heping from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) established the most comprehensive city-level fire incident database to date, covering 20.6% of the global population and quantified the intrinsic link between climate change and urban fire risks. The study was published in Nature Cities.

It is estimated that fires worldwide cause 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries annually. There is an urgent need in understanding changes in fire incident frequency when it comes to develop climate-adaptive strategies. While the impact of climate warming on wildfires has been well established, its influence on urban fire risks remains unclear.

The research team collected fire incident data from 2,847 cities worldwide, unveiling the impact mechanisms of climate change on different types of urban fires. Their findings revealed a parabolic relationship between building fire frequency and rising temperatures, with the lowest frequency occurring at the thermal comfort temperature of approximately 24.0°C.

Additionally, for every 1°C increase in temperature, vehicle and outdoor fire frequencies rose by 2.7% and 4.7%, respectively. Projections under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario suggested that by 2100, building fire frequency may decrease by 4.6%, while vehicle and outdoor fire incidents could increase by 11.6% and 22.2%, respectively.

Between 2020 and 2100, global warming might directly result in 335,000 fire-related deaths and 1.153 million injuries. Although achieving the 1.5°C climate target could reduce fire-related casualties under the SSP5-8.5 scenario by 50%, the numbers would still be high.

The study provided quantitative recommendations for the allocation and reallocation of national firefighting budgets, guiding climate adaptation strategies. The researchers highlighted the need for different mitigation strategies for various types of fire incidents under global warming.

By implementing regional, timely, and precise firefighting resource planning, potential strategies could be directly applied to reduce fire-related casualties and property losses.

Given the current lack of urban-specific fire risk indices, the study could also help develop tailored fire risk indices for different countries or cities. laying a theoretical foundation for the planning, precise allocation and response strategies of firefighting resources.