Towards vehicle electrification: A mathematical prediction of battery electric vehicle ownership growth in Turkey

The transportation sector is severely harming the environment by producing nearly a fifth of the global CO2 emissions, and just over 70% of these emissions are coming from road transportation. Many countries are relying on electric vehicles to achieve their future greenhouse gas reduction targets. A recent breakthrough study presented by researchers from the Budapest University of Technology and Economics introduces a mathematical prediction of battery electric vehicle ownership growth using Turkey as an example. This advanced method can provide a year-by-year projection of battery electric vehicle (BEV) ownership rates.

Although the economy and environmental awareness of Turkey have significantly developed in recent years, newly registered EVs are still marginal compared to gasoline-powered automobiles. The situation, nevertheless, is expected to change as there are serious governmental movements to encourage the implementation of EVs into the car market. The mathematical prediction aims to investigate the growth rate of BEV ownership in Turkey over time based on past and current trends, aiding in exploring the anticipated timeline for BEV market saturation.

The key to predict the growth rate of BEV ownership is to employ and optimize the Gompertz model. The Gompertz model, after nearly a century, became more popular for life cycle analysis to estimate market demand. The Gompertz, S-shaped curve consists of four stages. The first stage is the slow increase in the ownership of a product, that is because it is not yet very popular, and the user experience is immature. The second stage is where the product becomes prevalent with the public and many of them would like to have it, so ownership will be at its highest pace. The third stage starts when many people purchase the product, so the growth will be at a slower pace compared to the second stage. The final stage is when the product hits market saturation.

Despite BEVs experiencing a faster growth rate compared to Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs), their influence is altering the overall market dynamics. Their introduction is poised to push further market saturation by approximately 15 years to occur approximately in 2095 as opposed to 2080s. This shift distinguishes BEVs from ICEVs and highlights their transformative role in Turkey's automotive future.

In conclusion, the main aim of this research is to provide Turkish policymakers and transport planners with solid insights into how the vehicle market will perform in the short and long run, allowing them to prepare a smooth transition to BEVs. In addition, this research applied a mathematical model to predict BEV ownership rates over time. This methodology holds promise for future extensions, potentially encompassing diverse vehicle types, such as autonomous and connected cars. Moreover, the model's adaptability positions it as a versatile tool applicable to a spectrum of case studies, products, and temporal contexts. Its predictive capabilities make it an invaluable asset for forecasting and strategic planning in an array of scenarios.

Reference

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[2] World Bank Data. CO2 emissions from transport (% of total fuel combustion) | Data. 2022. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.TRAN.ZS.

[3] Franzo S, Nasca A. The environmental impact of electric vehicles: a novel life cycle- based evaluation framework and its applications to multi-country scenarios. J Clean Prod 2021;315:128005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128005.

Author: Anas Alatawneh, Duha Ghunaim

Title of original paper: Towards vehicle electrification: A mathematical prediction of battery electric vehicle ownership growth, the case of Turkey

Article link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geits.2024.100166

Journal: Green Energy and Intelligent Transportation

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2773153724000185