Brazil must reinforce protection of forests to meet climate change mitigation goals, study warns

As it prepares to host the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP 30, the first COP to be held in the Amazon) in November 2025, Brazil is at a crucial moment. Its greenhouse gas emission reduction targets are still within reach, but socioenvironmental actions and policies focusing on conserving or restoring forests and biomes need to be strengthened. This is one of the key points made by Brazilian scientists in an article published in the journal Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation.

The authors are affiliated with the National Space Research Institute (INPE) and the National Disaster Surveillance and Early Warning Center (CEMADEN).

The article addresses challenges in conserving and restoring Brazilian biomes, combating deforestation and forest degradation, restoring native vegetation, and promoting vegetation regrowth in secondary forests. It advocates strengthening and expanding policies to maintain ecosystem services, implementing consistent mechanisms to attract investment in restoration activities and payment for environmental services in all biomes, fostering bioeconomy initiatives, and creating new environmental protection areas.

“The article reflects a collaborative study designed to provide an overview of deforestation, degradation and restoration of biomes, and how these relate to Brazil’s efforts to pursue sustainable development and achieve its carbon emission goals,” said Débora Joana Dutra, first author of the article and a PhD candidate at INPE with a scholarship from FAPESP.

For biologist Liana Oighenstein Anderson, Dutra’s thesis advisor and a researcher at CEMADEN, even when there are preventive measures, they are insufficient to tackle the challenges posed by climate change. “The wildfires seen this year in the Amazon and Pantanal are a case in point. Prevention wasn’t sufficient to contain the alarming numbers. When we do estimates like those in the study, we get the feeling we’re being highly conservative in light of what’s actually happening and the challenges Brazil faces,” Anderson told Agência FAPESP. 

This has been a record year for fires in Brazil, with 65,325 fire incidences reported in the first seven months – the highest number for almost 20 years. The previous record was 69,184 in the corresponding period of 2005, according to data from INPE. The Amazon and Cerrado biomes are the worst hit (28,396 and 22,217 respectively).

In the Pantanal, the number of reported fires in the period reached 4,756, the highest since records began in 1998. The highest annual total in this biome was recorded in 2020.

“In 2020, fires in the Pantanal, which is in Brazil’s central region, drew the world’s attention and led to a number of reactions. For example, the Ministry for Science and Technology created Rede Pantanal, and the state of Mato Grosso do Sul implemented an integrated fire management plan. In 2023, the federal government announced a management plan for the biome, and Mato Grosso do Sul declared a state of emergency in April. So there have been actions relating to management, governance and regulation to try to avoid fires, but unfortunately they aren’t enough. We’ve seen progress, but we need better governance, improved strategies, and more funds. Everything must be done faster,” Anderson said.

For Luiz Aragão, last author of the article and a researcher at INPE, the study is a wakeup call to society regarding greenhouse gas emissions and related issues. “Society must address the problem not just from the environmental standpoint but also socioeconomically. It’s all connected. Deforestation, for example, tends to be followed by fire, which is a public health hazard and degrades the forest. Degraded land where the forest has been cleared has less potential to provide ecosystem services, such as the water cycle and biodiversity, which safeguard the quality of life for local communities and exert a significant influence on economic activity,” he said.

Changes in land use and land cover (such as deforestation to raise cattle and grow crops, or forest degradation) are the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, negotiated at the 2015 UN climate change conference in France, Brazil undertook to help keep global warming at or below 1.5 °C compared with the preindustrial level (1850-1900), but the average temperature rise has far surpassed this limit in recent months.

The COP30 agenda includes a review of the Paris Agreement, which requires all signatories to commit to 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Brazil has promised 53% compared with 2005. Nevertheless, net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) due to land use and land-cover changes doubled between 2017 and 2022, according to the Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimating System (SEEG). As for restoration, Brazil has promised to rewild 12 million hectares of former native forest (an area almost the size of Portugal).

Difficulties

According to the article, halting or reversing the growth of deforestation in all six biomes is a major challenge. The authors note that the destruction of native vegetation has averaged 2 million hectares per year or more since 2016, when Brazil submitted its nationally determined contribution under the Paris Agreement rules.

In 2022 alone, some 2.8 million hectares were deforested, mainly in the Amazon and Cerrado. This was the highest rate since 2008 and represented 23% of Brazil’s restoration goal. In addition, restoration of native vegetation is required in some 16 million hectares inadequately conserved as “legal reserves” on private property, more than half in the Amazon and 25% in the Cerrado.

Another finding highlighted by the researchers is the growth of secondary forest areas, which have high carbon capture capacity but are not protected by specific legislation. According to the article, 5.46 million hectares of secondary forest grew outside public land between 2017 and 2022 – 40% in the Amazon, 36% in the Atlantic Rainforest biome, and 19% in the Cerrado. Although this is almost half of Brazil’s restoration goal, maintenance of secondary forests as carbon sinks is endangered owing to their vulnerability to deforestation and degradation, including fire and logging.

Recommended action

In the article, the researchers recommend action to conserve and restore biomes in line with the carbon emission reduction effort to which Brazil is committed, including measures to combat illegal deforestation, legislation to protect secondary forests, stronger law enforcement and environmental inspection, large-scale initiatives to restore native vegetation, and economic incentives for landowners to conserve forest areas via payment for ecosystem services.

Incentives such as these will also be important to conserve forest areas that could legally be cleared as the law now stands. These areas are in properties where native vegetation accounts for a larger percentage than the mandatory “legal reserve”. According to the article, 38% of the total “surplus legal reserve” is in the Cerrado, 23% in the Caatinga, 13% in the Atlantic Rainforest biome, and 10% in the Amazon.

National legislation is needed to increase protection of secondary forests outside legal reserve and permanent conservation areas so as to ensure that they contribute to carbon sequestration in the long term. “Existing laws and measures are insufficient to bring about change,” Aragão said. “The global climate is different. It won’t be possible to solve environmental problems, which are getting more severe because of climate change, if we rely solely on past thinking. We must pivot to future thinking.”

The Ministry for the Environment and Climate Change told Agência FAPESP via its press office that it has taken steps to achieve its commitment to “zero deforestation in all biomes by 2030”. The measures taken include União com Municípios (“Union with Municipalities”), a program launched in April as part of the Action Plan to Prevent and Control Deforestation in Legal Amazonia (PPCDAm), with BRL 785 million allocated to 70 priority municipalities, 48 of which have so far signed the adherence agreement; and tightening of the rules used by the National Monetary Council (CMN), such as banning farm loans to landowners whose permits under the Rural Environmental Register (CAR), designed to ensure compliance with the Forest Code, have been suspended or who have broken the law on Indigenous Territories, conservation units and undesignated public forests.

In addition, the ministry highlighted resumption of the Amazon Fund, with new contracts worth BRL 1.4 billion and further donations set to reach BRL 3.1 billion. An anti-deforestation action plan similar to PPCDAm has been launched for the Cerrado. On restoration, it cited the National Plan for Restoration of Native Vegetation, which aims to extend and strengthen public policy, financial incentives, markets, restoration and rehabilitation technologies, and agricultural best practices, and will be updated this year.

Next steps

According to Dutra, next steps for the researchers will focus on the economic losses caused by deforestation, further developing the data used in the latest study.

“Estimating the cost of the impact is highly valuable in our view, especially to show it‘s much cheaper to prevent than to reconstruct. Brazil does quite a lot in terms of responses to extreme events and natural disasters but needs to invest in prevention,” Aragão said.

For Anderson, more and better dialogue is needed among federal, state and municipal institutions, the third sector, and local communities. Penalties for inaction or failure to implement plans are another requirement. “Our capacity for dialogue is very limited,” he said. “It’s hindered by political distortions and falls well short of what can be done technically to make faster progress.”

FAPESP supported the study via six projects (20/15230-5; 20/08916-8; 22/11698-8; 19/25701-8; 23/03206-0; and 20/16457-3).

About São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)

The São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) is a public institution with the mission of supporting scientific research in all fields of knowledge by awarding scholarships, fellowships and grants to investigators linked with higher education and research institutions in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. FAPESP is aware that the very best research can only be done by working with the best researchers internationally. Therefore, it has established partnerships with funding agencies, higher education, private companies, and research organizations in other countries known for the quality of their research and has been encouraging scientists funded by its grants to further develop their international collaboration. You can learn more about FAPESP at www.fapesp.br/en and visit FAPESP news agency at www.agencia.fapesp.br/en to keep updated with the latest scientific breakthroughs FAPESP helps achieve through its many programs, awards and research centers. You may also subscribe to FAPESP news agency at http://agencia.fapesp.br/subscribe.

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