Skill verification of East Asia winter temperature forecast cases selected based on SST thresholds in key regions. (IMAGE)
Caption
The vertical lines mark the high-skill forecast windows, with colors distinguishing the ENSO phases: El Niño (orange), La Niña-A (dark blue) and La Niña-B (light blue). Circles represent the PCC (left axis) and triangles the MAE (right axis, inverted). Solid markers denote high-skill cases (PCC ≥ 0.3 or MAE ≤ 2.7) and hollow markers denote low-skill cases (PCC < 0.3 and MAE > 2.7).
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