Forecast of developing El Niño (IMAGE)

University of Hawaii at Manoa

Forecast of developing El Niño

Caption

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the ORAS5 ocean reanalysis for March 2026 (top) and the corresponding six-month forecast for September 2026 from the research model (bottom). The black box marks the Niño3.4 region in the equatorial central Pacific, a key area used to monitor El Niño and La Niña conditions. In March 2026, cooler-than-average waters were present in the Niño3.4 region, while the September 2026 forecast indicates a shift toward warmer-than-average conditions, consistent with the likely development of El Niño later this year. The forecast is updated monthly online (https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu/research/ENSOforecast/).

Credit

UH Sea Level Center

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