Global warming has accelerated since 2015, according to a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). After accounting for known natural influences on global temperature, the research team detected a statistically significant acceleration of the warming trend for the first time. Over the past ten years, the estimated warming rate has been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015. This recent rate is higher than in any previous decade since the beginning of instrumental records in 1880.

Even if temporary breaches of temperature targets occur, global CO₂ emissions still need to reach net zero by mid-century. New research shows how overshoot affects policy priorities, risk distribution, and mitigation strategies – while keeping the core Paris Agreement objective intact.

Forest damage in Europe caused by wildfires, storms and bark beetle outbreaks is projected to increase compared to recent decades under all analysed climate scenarios, according to a new international study, published in the scientific journal Science, with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). 

Across Europe, climate-driven forest disturbances, such as wildfires and insect outbreaks, are expected to increase over the next century, according to a new large-scale modeling study, substantially altering forested landscapes continent-wide. Global forests are increasingly shaped by climate-driven disturbances, such as wildfires, storms, and insect outbreaks, resulting in large pulses of tree mortality. These events can have profound impacts on forest landscapes and biodiversity with long-lasting environmental and socio-economic consequences. However, predicting future disturbances is difficult because forest systems contain complex feedbacks that interact with one another in highly dynamic ways. As a result of these complex interactions and feedbacks, accurate, large-scale projections of future forest disturbance patterns are greatly lacking. To anticipate how Europe’s forests may change this century, Marc Grünig and colleagues used high-resolution satellite images from the Landsat satellite to develop a deep learning-based modeling framework that accounts for the interplay between climate change, forest growth, and interacting disturbances. Using the model, Grünig et al. simulated changes in forest disturbance rates and tree mortality across Europe in the 21^st century under three climate change scenarios. They found that disturbance-induced tree mortality across the continent will likely intensify under all climate scenarios. Notably, disturbances are projected to reach unprecedented levels in the latter half of the 21^st century if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. According to the authors, wildfire is the dominant driver of disturbance-induced mortality, particularly in dry Mediterranean regions, but also in areas where fire has historically been less common. What’s more, bark beetle outbreaks are another major force, especially in temperate central European regions, where warmer and drier conditions accelerate the life cycle of beetles and weaken tree defenses.