[Research Articles] Assessing future risk of humanitarian crises using projections of climate-related hazards, population, conflict and other socioeconomic variables within the INFORM framework

A new study published in Big Earth Data applies the INFORM Climate Change model to project future global risks of humanitarian crises, showing that risks may decline under development-oriented pathways but increase significantly under high-emission, fragmented scenarios, providing guidance for targeted climate adaptation and risk reduction.

Citation
Marzi, S., Poljanšek, K., Papadimitriou, E., Dalla Valle, D., Salvi, A., & Corbane, C. (2025). Assessing future risk of humanitarian crises using projections of climate-related hazards, population, conflict and other socioeconomic variables within the INFORM framework. Big Earth Data, 9(4), 676–713. https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2025.2535852

Abstract

This study uses the INFORM Climate Change model to estimate the impacts of climate change on humanitarian crises and disasters globally. It is based on risk concept and composite indicator methodology: using indicators to measure hazards and people’s exposure to them, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity. It incorporates projections of climate-related hazards, population and conflict into the risk model to analyze future risk. A key novelty of this research lies in its inclusion of the future projections of vulnerability and coping capacity drivers under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our analysis reveals that global risk of humanitarian crises is projected to decrease by mid-twenty-first century under moderate and rapid development scenarios. The “high emission—fragmented world (SSP3)” scenario stands out with significant increases in exposure to floods, droughts, epidemics, and conflict. In this scenario, reduced vulnerability and coping capacity will not offset the increased hazards, resulting in over a 50% increase in the number of people living in high-risk countries. Our findings aim to support prioritizing regions and communities most vulnerable to climate change impacts. This will enable targeted resource allocation for risk reduction and adaptation interventions, preventing increased risks and further setbacks in development.

#Humanitarian crises #climate change adaptation #composite indicator approach #INFORM climate change #socioeconomic vulnerability #coping capacity

Big Earth Data is an interdisciplinary Open Access journal which aims to provide an efficient and high-quality platform for promoting the sharing, processing and analyses of Earth-related big data, thereby revolutionizing the cognition of the Earth’s systems. The journal publishes a wide range of content, including Research Articles, Review Articles, Data Notes, Technical Notes, and Perspectives. It is now included in ESCI (IF=3.8, Q1), Scopus (CiteScore=9.0, Q1), Ei Compendex, GEOBASE, and Inspec. Starting from 2023, Big Earth Data has announced a new award series for authors: Best and Outstanding Paper Awards.