Incheon National University researchers reveal how U.S. foreign policy affects Taiwanese public support for independence

Since the 1970s, the United States has maintained a position of strategic ambiguity with regard to Taiwan’s security, by not opposing Beijing’s “One China” principle but also enacting laws to enable Taiwan’s self-defense. This position seems to have deterred Chinese military attacks on Taiwan while also discouraging pro-independence movements within Taiwan. In recent times, Taiwanese political leaders are moving towards more independent foreign relations, whereas Chinese leaders have reaffirmed their stance on reunification. For its part, the United States (U.S.) has also increased official contacts between Washington and Taipei.

Given these changing stances in all three nations, Assistant Professor Kyung Suk Lee from Incheon National University and Associate Professor Daekwon Son from Sogang University, South Korea, set out to study the effect of U.S. strategic commitments on Taiwanese people’s perspectives regarding independence. Their findings were made available online on May 27, 2024, and were published in Volume 30 of the Journal of Chinese Political Science in December, 2025.

“We lack rigorous empirical evidence on how different U.S. policy postures—strategic ambiguity, clarity, or abandonment—influence Taiwanese public support for independence versus unification,” says Dr. Lee. To address this gap, the authors surveyed 900 Taiwanese people and recorded their support for independence in response to six scenarios: two kinds of Chinese aggression (coercion by military build-up or attacks on Taiwan) and three U.S. strategic positions in response (ambiguity or defense of Taiwan or abandonment of Taiwan).

Most respondents were in favor of maintaining the status quo of de facto independence without international recognition, regardless of the scenario (73% under coercion, 68% under military strikes). In the face of Chinese coercion, U.S. commitment to defense increased support for independence, while abandonment decreased support. However, after Chinese military strikes, U.S. ambiguity increased support for independence, while both alternatives reduced support.

These findings have significant value for foreign policy. First, the Taiwanese public prioritizes peace and stability, and does not want independence at the cost of military conflict with China. Second, clarity of U.S. foreign policy has opposing effects on support for independence depending on the nature of Chinese aggression.

In this changing political climate, leaders in Washington must clearly understand that Taiwanese support for independence, while significant, is highly conditional and pragmatic. “One policy avenue that the U.S. could contemplate is a conditional form of strategic clarity—that is, offering security assurances to Taiwan solely in response to unprovoked Chinese aggression while refraining from intervention in the event of Chinese attacks triggered by Taiwan’s claim to independence,” suggests Dr. Lee, adding that any other clarifying position risks destabilizing the Taiwan Strait.

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Reference
DOI: 10.1007/s11366-024-09890-6

About Incheon National University
Incheon National University (INU) is a comprehensive, student-focused university. It was founded in 1979 and given university status in 1988. One of the largest universities in South Korea, it houses nearly 14,000 students and 500 faculty members. In 2010, INU merged with Incheon City College to expand capacity and open more curricula. With its commitment to academic excellence and an unrelenting devotion to innovative research, INU offers its students real-world internship experiences. INU not only focuses on studying and learning but also strives to provide a supportive environment for students to follow their passion, grow, and, as their slogan says, be Inspired.

Website: http://www.inu.ac.kr/mbshome/mbs/inuengl/index.html

About Assistant Professor Kyung Suk Lee
Dr. Kyung Suk Lee is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Studies at Incheon National University, South Korea. Dr. Lee will join Yonsei University, Graduate School of International Studies, in the upcoming 2026 Spring semester. He earned his Ph.D. in Political Science from Texas A&M University. His research interests include international security, nuclear and alliance politics, and public and elite opinion on global affairs. Dr. Lee’s work has been published in top peer-reviewed journals such as Contemporary Security Policy, International Studies Quarterly, The Washington Quarterly, and International Interactions.