Pork prices reach record highs with holiday demand ahead

Retail pork prices hit record high levels this summer and are expected to remain elevated heading into the holiday season, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts said.

In July, average retail pork prices reached the highest point of the year, $5.01 per pound, up from $4.92 a year ago, said David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension livestock and food marketing economist and professor in the Texas A&M College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station.

“Supplies remain tight as U.S. pork production has edged lower due to reduced sow numbers, despite gains in productivity per litter,” he said. “Consumers should expect higher prices this fall because production is about the same as last year and we’re not seeing expansion in the herd. “Without more production, prices are going to stay high.”

Pork continues to provide consumer value

Wholesale prices for several key cuts, including hams, pork bellies and trimmings used for sausage are well above year-ago levels, Anderson said.

However, pork loins are a relative bargain at $1.13 per pound wholesale, compared to $1.26 a year ago. Seasonal shifts in consumer demand also shape the market, with ribs and shoulders popular for summer grilling while hams gain momentum in the fall and winter holidays.

Despite the record high prices, Davey Griffin, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension meat specialist and professor in the Department of Animal Science, Bryan-College Station, said pork remains a competitively priced protein when compared to beef and poultry.

Packers and retailers are already booking hams for Thanksgiving and Christmas, with bellies and the bacon market they supply, continuing to hold strong demand, he said.

“Pork is in a good spot right now to provide affordable protein options for consumers, especially with beef prices remaining very high,” Griffin added.

Pork production in Texas

While Texas is not among the nation’s top pork-producing states, the industry plays a role in both commercial and niche markets.

A major operation in the Texas Panhandle supplies hogs to a large processing plant, but most of the state’s production capacity remains small in scale compared to Midwest states, Griffin said. Smaller-scale producers and processors across the state also serve foreign and domestic ethnic markets that prefer lighter hogs for whole carcass or specialty cuts.

While Texas may trail other states in pork production, it does have a unique $50 million-a-year show pig industry serving thousands of youths who raise animals for major stock shows each year. Many of those animals ultimately enter the food chain, while breeding gilts help sustain herds.

Trade influence on prices at home

Exports remain a key driver of U.S. pork demand, but recent tariff disputes have shifted global trade flows. Anderson noted that Mexico is now the largest market for U.S. pork, with 230 million pounds shipped there in June alone. By comparison, exports to China have fallen sharply, from an average of nearly 38 million pounds per month last year to just 4 million in May following retaliatory tariffs.

“Mexico continues to be our strongest partner, while China’s demand has dropped significantly due to trade barriers,” Anderson said. “Those shifts ultimately feed back into the U.S. market and help explain why prices remain firm across most cuts.”

Looking ahead, Anderson and Griffin expect pork prices to stay strong through the holiday season, particularly for hams and bacon, which see peak demand in November and December. While some cuts like pork loins and trimmings may ease later in the year, overall tight supplies and steady demand are likely to keep retail prices near record highs.

“Unless we see a meaningful increase in production, high prices are here to stay into early next year,” Anderson said.

AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:

Panhandle

Hot, dry and windy weather persisted. Soil moisture ranged from short to adequate, and crop conditions ranged from fair to excellent. Wheat preplant activity advanced. Many corn producers ended irrigation as crops reached maturity, while sorghum entered the grain-fill stage. Feed corn harvest was expected soon. Aphids and fall armyworms were reported in some fields. Rangeland was still green, but grass growth slowed as it matured. Cattle remained in excellent condition. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to excellent.

South Plains

Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were short despite scattered rainfall. High heat dried fields and increased irrigation demands. Cotton was at peak water use and neared the end of blooming. Producers focused on retaining bolls for yield and quality. Early corn was chopped for silage, while later fields showed heat and drought stress, with some reports of southern rust. Producers treated sorghum acres for aphids, and early planted sorghum neared harvest. Cattle were in good condition, though rain was needed.

Rolling Plains

Rainfall improved pasture and crop conditions in some areas, but others remained hot and dry. Isolated hail damaged cotton in parts of the district. Cotton was blooming and setting bolls, and heat stress remained a concern. Peanuts were blooming and pegging. Producers prepared for wheat planting, and some fields were already grazed. Hay production mostly stopped with surplus supplies reported in some counties. Pasture conditions held where rain fell but declined in dry areas. Summer forages such as haygrazer and Sudan grass were nearly finished. Sunflowers matured while wildlife food plots showed drought stress.

North

Rainfall ranged from half an inch to 2.5 inches, but hot, dry conditions continued. Corn was in dough, dent and mature stages. Cotton was squaring, setting and opening bolls. Sorghum was coloring and maturing, and soybeans were blooming, setting pods and dropping leaves. Producers harvested corn, sorghum and hay. Many fields were tilled to suppress winter weeds. Pastures were in mostly fair to good condition. Livestock were in fair to good condition. Sorghum aphids were observed along field edges, but no major pest or disease outbreaks were reported.

East

Hay production continued, with some counties storing ample supplies while others prepared to plant winter pastures. Rainfall declined sharply, and high heat stressed crops and pastures, turning fields brown. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate, but water levels in lakes, ponds and creeks dropped. Pasture and rangeland conditions were mostly good. Livestock were in fair to good condition. Armyworms and Bermuda grass stem maggots were reported in pastures. Cattle markets stayed strong.

Far West

Hot, dry conditions persisted across the district. Corn was drying down for harvest, and sorghum was mostly headed out with below-average yields expected. Cotton suffered heat stress, especially early planted fields at peak bloom. Haygrazer was headed out, and melon harvest was strong. Pastures dried rapidly, and livestock lost condition despite supplementation.

Central

Scattered showers delivered up to 2.5 inches of rain, but hot, humid weather stressed pastures. Weed pressure increased. Stock tanks and reservoirs stayed in good condition. Corn and sorghum harvests continued with yields ranging from fair to above average. Second-crop corn looked good under irrigation. Cotton progressed toward harvest with bolls opening. Hay yields were excellent, with some areas starting a third cutting. Grasshoppers and armyworms were reported in some pastures. Livestock were in good condition with minimal supplemental feeding. Cattle, sheep and goat markets were strong, and the calf crop appeared healthy.

Southeast

Triple-digit heat stressed pastures and forage crops, though conditions remained strong in some counties. Heavy afternoon showers saturated fields in multiple counties, slowing rice and sorghum harvests. Muddy fields stalled other fieldwork that required heavy equipment. Corn, rice, sorghum, cotton and soybeans progressed steadily. Cotton showed good boll set across several counties, though some bolls were smaller than usual. Livestock were generally in fair to good condition, with shade and water critical during peak heat. Pest pressure was minimal, with only isolated reports of armyworms and grasshoppers. Rainfall supported some pasture growth but complicated hay baling and increased spoilage risk. Pasture and rangeland ratings were poor to excellent. Soil moisture was adequate to surplus.

Southwest

Hot, dry weather persisted with daytime temperatures near 100 degrees. Spotty showers provided limited relief. Heat stressed pastures, but pest pressure remained low. Producers harvested corn and sorghum with below-average yields reported. Hay production paused, and supplemental feeding increased as forage declined. Livestock conditions were steady to slightly improved, and cattle and sheep markets stayed strong. Native grasses seeded out, but rangelands remained dry, and fire danger was high. Forecasts predicted cooler, wetter conditions ahead. Whitetail bucks were in good shape, though some does showed stress from late fawning and low nutrition. Acorn crops developed well.

Coastal Bend

Scattered showers brought little relief as soils stayed dry. Corn harvest was nearly complete with average yields of 119-131 bushels per acre. Rice harvest continued, and sorghum and soybean harvests were underway. Soybeans yielded well despite red-banded stink bug pressure. Cotton harvest advanced quickly under dry conditions, with strong yields reported. Pastures dried, and some producers began feeding hay amid adequate supplies. Bermuda grass leafhopper and mealybug damage was reported. Livestock remained in good condition. Cattle markets were strong with larger sale barn runs.

South

Hot, humid and mostly dry conditions continued, and light rainfall in some areas provided brief relief. Grain sorghum and corn harvests progressed, while cotton was defoliated and neared harvest. Peanuts developed well, and sunflowers were nearly ready for harvest. Sesame harvest began with strong yields reported. Strawberry fieldwork and vegetable harvests continued, and pecan orchards looked good. Producers irrigated hay meadows and citrus orchards. Falcon Lake levels remained low. Pastures held grass but dried quickly. Livestock supplementation increased, and cattle markets stayed strong with higher prices for all classes. Deer producers provided supplemental feed and water as wildlife showed stress from heat and dryness.