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The analysis identified and characterized flash and slow droughts in natural and planted forests. A Bi-GRU network simulated baseline monthly drought days (MPDD), while a KNN algorithm matched forest stands by environmental covariates to ensure comparable climates. Using these matched pairs, counterfactual scenarios isolated how forest type affects drought regulation, holding climate constant. Finally, SHAP analysis identified key drought risk drivers for each forest type.
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Kai Duan, School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
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