Figure 1. Novel methodology estimating epidemiological parameters based on realistic assumptions (IMAGE)
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The joint research team has developed a new estimation method that overcomes the fundamental limitations of conventional epidemiological parameter estimation. (left) Conventional methods assume history-independent dynamics, which assume a constant probability of transitioning between different disease stages of disease regardless of time since exposure, and use mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations. (right) In contrast, the new method developed by the team adopts a history-dependent dynamics, where the probability of transitioning between disease stages changes over time, and introduces a mathematical model based on delay differential equations.
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